I’m pretty confident we will be unable to remove Trump from office in the first term, since it is mathematically impossible for the Democrats to get a supermajority in the Senate in 2018. So it would require Republicans to remove him from office - even if they don’t like him, even if the base kind of hates him, they’d still have to answer for their crimes in the context of the tribalism that is our political party system. Why would they do it in such dramatic fashion?
But I’m not alone in noticing Republican leaders are starting to not give a fuck about Trump anymore. It makes sense - he’s not helping them at all. I won’t go so far as to say they’re going to be hardcore investigators on the Russia interference because they are wieners, but they don’t like him right now. It’s hard for me to imagine all this criticism and these “hard” lines they’re taking (I’d appreciate them getting harder, thanks) and then them endorsing him later on. Plus you know Trump will be the first to point out which of them wasn’t loyal to him and try to fuck up their reelection campaigns. So do they try to let him wind up his base closer to elections and ride that shit to victory again, or decide that well has dried and try someone else?
Also, Trump’s trying to get the RNC to pay his legal bills which is going to pit him against them (again). Will they play that game again?
I don’t know how legit this is, but Robert Reich posted a conversation with an anonymous in-the-know friend that mentioned the Republicans running someone else. I’m not taking it that literally since it’s a little bit of a game of telephone, but just wanted to mention because it put the idea in my head more:
Him: [Republicans] want [Trump] outa there.
Me: Really? Impeachment?
Him: Doubt it, unless Mueller comes up with a smoking gun.
Me: Or if he fires Mueller.
Him: Not gonna happen.
Me: So how do they get him out?
Him: Put someone else up in ’20. Lots of maneuvering already. Pence, obviously. Cruz thinks he has a shot.
It’s hard to imagine a party denying their sitting president the nomination, but it’s happened before. It only worked out once though. I think this would probably alienate that 25% of voters who are hardcore Trumpers, and sink the Republicans. Then again, if they ran him again, he’ll likely have nothing to show for her four years in office and it’s going to be hard to sell that he deserves four more.
I don’t think they’d go with Pence if they asserting that they need to switch directions. I think Cruz might be a likely choice. Ryan seems like an obvious pick but there is no shortage of shitweasels to choose from.
Just to be clear, I’m not saying any of them have developed any level of principle or are trying to do what’s right for the American people - I’m only analyzing this in the context of them acting in their own self interests.