So, Monday is when we find out if California's AB1266, the School Success and Opportunity Act, will be subject to a referendum or not. I'm past primary school age, as are the trans folks I know IRL, so this law doesn't directly affect me. However, a referendum would also mean campaigning for and against, and I'm sure that the people fighting against trans folks' rights would be putting some pretty heinous claims out on the airwaves, which certainly could make life worse for trans folks inside and outside our state at any age.


All that said, I do not believe it will be going to vote. Most of the results are in, and in order for the referendum to qualify EACH of the remaining 8 counties that have yet to submit their final tallies would have to have a valid signature rate of 85.4%. For reference, the average of those counties' spot check signature validity rate is 79.2%, so each county would have to increase the number of valid signatures by over 6% of their total.

For purposes of comparison, I looked at the validity rate of the three largest counties that have turned in total results: Orange, San Bernardino, and San Diego counties. Between the three of them, their average increase in signature validity is about 2.2%, just over 1/3 of the amount by which the remaining counties would have to increase their total. The biggest mover, San Diego county, only upped their total by 3.9%. In short, I don't think there's much chance of the referendum qualifying.

So, I'm going to predict, based on math, that the referendum effort will fail to qualify for the ballot by a little over 9000 signatures. We shall see what the results are on Monday!

Updated: the final tally is in, and the referendum effort has fallen short by over 17,000 signatures! This is due to Los Angeles county, which accounted for more than half of the I tallied signatures when I wrote this article on Friday. Instead of increasing their validity rate like the other populous counties in Southern California, they actually decreased by 1.2%. There is some predictable whining from the groups pushing for this, but they really have no chance of scrounging up 17,000 additional signatures. It's one thing to get a judge to un-throw-out signatures from a county that submitted them past the deadline, and another entirely to find a small city's worth of signature that the state has accidentally invalidated. Yay!