a.k.a. Hot Candidate vs. Vaping Congressman, a.k.a. CA’s 50th.
The most recent internal poll puts them tied at 46%. The older internal poll by the same company had Campa-Najjar down 9%, which (especially for being before the actual indictment) was pretty great for East County. Tied, even by an internal poll that presumably skews positive for the guy, is fantastic. Hopefully as ads come out those numbers can get even better.
I haven’t done a huge amount of volunteering for campaigns to have anything to compare with, but it seems to me like there’s a lot of energy. People are registering voters at Palomar (huge community college) and soccer tournaments and farmers markets and all sorts of places. And there’s phonebanking during the week and canvassing on weekends.
I’ve been canvassing weekends for a bit (they’ve been having us go to everyone not Republican), and it seems like non-R people who pay attention to politics at all REALLY don’t like Hunter. It’s definitely more an anti-Hunter sentiment (and a good amount of anti-Trump sentiment) than a pro-Campa-Najjar sentiment out there.
I don’t know how the Republicans are feeling about their guy. Honestly, probably not great, despite the more vocal supporters. This whole campaign fund theft thing has been brewing for years and only getting worse. The UT’s been really good at doing the investigative reporting, and a lot of people read the UT.
If I had to guess, it’ll come down to how many non-Republican people turn out (there are SO MANY people who just don’t vote) and how depressed the Republican turnout is. It’s such a heavily-R district that it’ll have to be both things—way more non-R voters voting AND way fewer R voters voting for Hunter.
But it’s possible. It’s more possible to get Hunter Jr. out than it’s ever been, which I consider worth a few hours of sweating on the weekend, and probably more as we get closer.