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Post-Brexit #nevertrump and the GOP convention



Now that that’s out of the way, I have some political calculus I’d like to discuss. Until today, I was pretty 50/50 on the fresh GOP rumblings about changing convention rules to allow delegates to choose a different nominee. I’d prefer we never got here in the first place, because no one deserves national attention less than Donald Trump and he’s already caused harm that’s going to take a generation + to repair. But here we are.


Obviously I’m counting on a big time Republican loss in November. Until today, my calculation on #nevertrump consisted of these potential outcomes:

-A Trump loss is assumed.
-The GOP could stick with Trump, get trounced, cause down-ballot losses, and cause us to get set back 25 years AT LEAST in terms of anti-racism progress.
-The GOP could dump Trump and commit electoral hara kiri with a vaguely respectable candidate (that rules out Ted Cruz), suffer fewer down-ballot losses, minimize the cultural harm and fallout, and maintain some kind of pretence of historical honour. This would result in a voter revolt and probably a party purge, but might eventually regain some ground by reconstructing the platform and pulling away centrists.

After today:
-A Trump loss, even if still likely, IS NOT A GIVEN AND IS FAR TOO RISKY TO GAMBLE.
-A Trump win would have similar market effects to Brexit
-Moneyed interests that fund the GOP might have a calculation to make: pull the plug on Trump in favour of less volatility, especially after Brexit.


If said moneyed interests decide their stocks are more important than their Randian philosophies, I think they’ll pull Trump and accept the party suicide in favour of their personal bottom lines. If they fancy themselves as visionaries willing to take the personal hit for the sake of their bananas morals, then we’re stuck with Trump and the associated risk.

I really hope they dump him, but I’m not sure if they’re not too craven.

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